中国机械工程 ›› 2026, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (4): 764-779.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-132X.2026.04.001
• 低碳设计理论与方法 • 下一篇
王黎明1,2(
), 肖兴源1,2, 李方义1,2(
), 汪晓光1,2,4, 李剑峰1,2,3, 聂延艳3, 刘伟彤1,2, 李柳沅1,2, 王忆同1,2, 王泊云1,2, 崔羽齐1,2
收稿日期:2025-11-03
出版日期:2026-04-25
发布日期:2026-05-11
通讯作者:
李方义
作者简介:王黎明,男,1986年生,教授、博士研究生导师。研究方向为绿色设计与制造、生命周期评价和智能优化算法。E-mail: liming_wang@sdu.edu.cn基金资助:
WANG Liming1,2(
), XIAO Xingyuan1,2, LI Fangyi1,2(
), WANG Xiaoguang1,2,4, LI Jianfeng1,2,3, NIE Yanyan3, LIU Weitong1,2, LI Liuyuan1,2, WANG Yitong1,2, WANG Boyun1,2, CUI Yuqi1,2
Received:2025-11-03
Online:2026-04-25
Published:2026-05-11
Contact:
LI Fangyi
摘要:
碳足迹数据是量化机电产品全生命周期碳排放、驱动制造业低碳转型的核心依据。聚焦于碳足迹数据从获取到应用的全流程,系统综述了其相关研究方法。梳理了多源异构碳足迹数据的获取技术与数据质量评估体系,解决数据“如何来”的问题。围绕“如何用”,重点阐述了数据驱动技术在低碳设计和制造中的应用,包括基于数据的碳足迹关联建模、智能预测、低碳设计方案生成与多目标决策方法,数据驱动下的制造能耗预测、低碳工艺规划与车间智能调度策略。最后分析了低碳设计和制造在数据完整性及系统集成性方面面临的挑战和未来研究方向,为机电产品绿色低碳发展提供理论参考。
中图分类号:
王黎明, 肖兴源, 李方义, 汪晓光, 李剑峰, 聂延艳, 刘伟彤, 李柳沅, 王忆同, 王泊云, 崔羽齐. 数据驱动的机电产品低碳设计与制造研究综述与展望[J]. 中国机械工程, 2026, 37(4): 764-779.
WANG Liming, XIAO Xingyuan, LI Fangyi, WANG Xiaoguang, LI Jianfeng, NIE Yanyan, LIU Weitong, LI Liuyuan, WANG Yitong, WANG Boyun, CUI Yuqi. Overview and Prospects of Data-driven Low-carbon Design and Manufacturing of Electromechanical Products[J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2026, 37(4): 764-779.
| 范围 | 原材料 获取 | 制造加工 | 物流运输 | 使用 运行 | 报废 回收 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 范围1 | √ (环境排放) | √ (环境排放) | |||
| 范围2 | √ (环境排放+能源消耗) | √ (环境排放+能源消耗) | |||
| 范围3 | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ |
表1 机电产品碳足迹数据范围
Tab.1 Carbon footprint data scope of electromechanical products
| 范围 | 原材料 获取 | 制造加工 | 物流运输 | 使用 运行 | 报废 回收 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 范围1 | √ (环境排放) | √ (环境排放) | |||
| 范围2 | √ (环境排放+能源消耗) | √ (环境排放+能源消耗) | |||
| 范围3 | √ | √ | √ | √ | √ |
| 碳排放数据库名称 | 典型应用场景 | 局限性 | |
|---|---|---|---|
国 内 | 中国产品全生命周期 温室气体排放系数库 | 提供材料与能源排放因子,用于机电产品生命周期评价、材料选择及设计阶段碳足迹评估。 | 行业覆盖不全,部分新兴行业缺数据; 更新频率低,时效性不足。 |
中国碳核算数据库 (CEADs) | 提供行业和区域碳排放强度数据,用于估算机电产品制造阶段能源消耗与碳排放水平。 | 公开版数据截止2018年; 企业级微观数据缺失。 | |
| 天工数据库 | 支持机电产品供应链碳排数据追溯,可用于产品碳足迹核算及低碳设计决策分析。 | 数据来源依赖企业自报,精度待验; 覆盖企业数量有限。 | |
| 中国多尺度排放清单模型 | 提供区域和行业排放清单数据,可用于机电产品生产布局、区域制造碳排放分析等。 | 需结合本地数据校准; 高频动态监测能力弱。 | |
全球实时碳数据 (Carbon Monitor) | 提供能源与交通等领域的动态排放数据,用于分析机电产品制造相关能源系统的碳排放变化趋势。 | 依赖统计模型估算,实测数据少; 发展中国家数据误差大(±10%~20%)。 | |
国 外 | IPCC碳排放因子 数据库 | 提供国际通用排放因子,用于机电产品碳足迹核算和生命周期评价中的基础参数。 | 默认因子未体现区域差异; 更新周期长(5~10年)。 |
| 国际能源署(IEA) | 提供全球能源消费与碳排放数据,用于分析机电产品制造能源结构及低碳制造路径。 | 工业过程排放覆盖不足; 部分国家数据为估算值。 | |
| 世界银行(WB) | 提供国家层面碳排放与经济数据,用于机电产品产业碳排放比较及政策分析。 | 数据颗粒度粗(国家/年); 企业级核算不适用。 | |
美国环境保护署 (EPA) | 提供设施级排放监测与报告数据,可用于制造工厂碳排放管理与低碳制造评估。 | 仅限美国本土数据; 国际应用需重新校准。 | |
气候观察 (Climate Watch) | 提供全球气候政策与排放数据,可用于机电产品低碳技术发展趋势与政策环境分析。 | 部分国家数据滞后; 无法支持产品级LCA。 |
表2 全球常用碳排放数据库分析
Tab.2 Analysis of globally common carbon emission databases
| 碳排放数据库名称 | 典型应用场景 | 局限性 | |
|---|---|---|---|
国 内 | 中国产品全生命周期 温室气体排放系数库 | 提供材料与能源排放因子,用于机电产品生命周期评价、材料选择及设计阶段碳足迹评估。 | 行业覆盖不全,部分新兴行业缺数据; 更新频率低,时效性不足。 |
中国碳核算数据库 (CEADs) | 提供行业和区域碳排放强度数据,用于估算机电产品制造阶段能源消耗与碳排放水平。 | 公开版数据截止2018年; 企业级微观数据缺失。 | |
| 天工数据库 | 支持机电产品供应链碳排数据追溯,可用于产品碳足迹核算及低碳设计决策分析。 | 数据来源依赖企业自报,精度待验; 覆盖企业数量有限。 | |
| 中国多尺度排放清单模型 | 提供区域和行业排放清单数据,可用于机电产品生产布局、区域制造碳排放分析等。 | 需结合本地数据校准; 高频动态监测能力弱。 | |
全球实时碳数据 (Carbon Monitor) | 提供能源与交通等领域的动态排放数据,用于分析机电产品制造相关能源系统的碳排放变化趋势。 | 依赖统计模型估算,实测数据少; 发展中国家数据误差大(±10%~20%)。 | |
国 外 | IPCC碳排放因子 数据库 | 提供国际通用排放因子,用于机电产品碳足迹核算和生命周期评价中的基础参数。 | 默认因子未体现区域差异; 更新周期长(5~10年)。 |
| 国际能源署(IEA) | 提供全球能源消费与碳排放数据,用于分析机电产品制造能源结构及低碳制造路径。 | 工业过程排放覆盖不足; 部分国家数据为估算值。 | |
| 世界银行(WB) | 提供国家层面碳排放与经济数据,用于机电产品产业碳排放比较及政策分析。 | 数据颗粒度粗(国家/年); 企业级核算不适用。 | |
美国环境保护署 (EPA) | 提供设施级排放监测与报告数据,可用于制造工厂碳排放管理与低碳制造评估。 | 仅限美国本土数据; 国际应用需重新校准。 | |
气候观察 (Climate Watch) | 提供全球气候政策与排放数据,可用于机电产品低碳技术发展趋势与政策环境分析。 | 部分国家数据滞后; 无法支持产品级LCA。 |
| 方法 | 评估范围 | 优点 | 潜在限制 | 适用场景 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DQI | 数据质量 评估 | 操作简单,可直接追溯数据源,有助于识别低质量数据来源。 | 忽略模型和算法中的数据不确定性,严重依赖专家的主观判断; 缺乏数据质量等级的标准化评分,难以在不同研究之间进行标准化。 | 数据来源复杂多样,需进行初步筛选与定性评估; 受限于资源,无法进行复杂定量不确定性分析的场景。 |
| MCS | 总体评估 | 能够量化参数随机性,生成结果分布范围,适用于复杂系统或模型。 | 计算复杂,依赖于设置输入数据的概率分布,大量模拟的计算负载高; 不合理的概率分布设计和不充分的仿真运行可能会导致结果出现偏差。 | 数据基础较好,关键参数的不确定性可被合理表征(如已知概率分布); 对核算结果的概率性解释有明确需求的深度研究或高风险决策场景。 |
| DQI+MCS | 总体评估 | 结合DQI和MCS的优势,提供更全面的评估结果。 | 增加模型复杂性和计算负担; 不合理的概率分布设计和不充分的仿真运行可能会导致结果出现偏差。 | 已积累一定的数据质量评分经验,并寻求在不确定性量化中纳入数据质量维度,以提高评估全面性与准确性的合规或研究项目。 |
表3 数据质量评估方法比较
Tab.3 Comparative analysis of data quality assessment methods
| 方法 | 评估范围 | 优点 | 潜在限制 | 适用场景 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DQI | 数据质量 评估 | 操作简单,可直接追溯数据源,有助于识别低质量数据来源。 | 忽略模型和算法中的数据不确定性,严重依赖专家的主观判断; 缺乏数据质量等级的标准化评分,难以在不同研究之间进行标准化。 | 数据来源复杂多样,需进行初步筛选与定性评估; 受限于资源,无法进行复杂定量不确定性分析的场景。 |
| MCS | 总体评估 | 能够量化参数随机性,生成结果分布范围,适用于复杂系统或模型。 | 计算复杂,依赖于设置输入数据的概率分布,大量模拟的计算负载高; 不合理的概率分布设计和不充分的仿真运行可能会导致结果出现偏差。 | 数据基础较好,关键参数的不确定性可被合理表征(如已知概率分布); 对核算结果的概率性解释有明确需求的深度研究或高风险决策场景。 |
| DQI+MCS | 总体评估 | 结合DQI和MCS的优势,提供更全面的评估结果。 | 增加模型复杂性和计算负担; 不合理的概率分布设计和不充分的仿真运行可能会导致结果出现偏差。 | 已积累一定的数据质量评分经验,并寻求在不确定性量化中纳入数据质量维度,以提高评估全面性与准确性的合规或研究项目。 |
| 方法类别 | 数据特征 | 适用场景 | 优点 | 局限性 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 基于重用 | 历史工艺案例数据、零件特征数据、CAD/CAM模型数据。 | 相似零件或加工特征较多的机加工、模具加工等场景。 | 能快速生成工艺方案,充分复用已有工艺知识。 | 依赖历史案例,适应新结构零件能力有限。 |
| 基于规则 | 工艺规则、加工参数、设备能力及时间/成本/碳排放约束数据。 | 工艺规则明确、知识体系成熟的制造过程。 | 可解释性强,符合工程经验。 | 规则构建复杂,难以描述复杂非线性关系。 |
| 基于机器学习 | 历史工艺数据、设备状态数据、能耗及环境数据。 | 数据基础较好的智能制造或数字化产线。 | 能挖掘复杂数据规律,优化能力强。 | 依赖数据规模与质量,可解释性较弱。 |
表4 机电产品工艺低碳规划方法对比
Tab.4 Comparison of low-carbon process planning methods for electromechanical products
| 方法类别 | 数据特征 | 适用场景 | 优点 | 局限性 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 基于重用 | 历史工艺案例数据、零件特征数据、CAD/CAM模型数据。 | 相似零件或加工特征较多的机加工、模具加工等场景。 | 能快速生成工艺方案,充分复用已有工艺知识。 | 依赖历史案例,适应新结构零件能力有限。 |
| 基于规则 | 工艺规则、加工参数、设备能力及时间/成本/碳排放约束数据。 | 工艺规则明确、知识体系成熟的制造过程。 | 可解释性强,符合工程经验。 | 规则构建复杂,难以描述复杂非线性关系。 |
| 基于机器学习 | 历史工艺数据、设备状态数据、能耗及环境数据。 | 数据基础较好的智能制造或数字化产线。 | 能挖掘复杂数据规律,优化能力强。 | 依赖数据规模与质量,可解释性较弱。 |
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