带测量误差的设备非线性退化建模与剩余寿命在线预测

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-132X.2026.01.016

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

现有的剩余寿命在线预测方法通常基于贝叶斯理论更新随机退化模型的漂移参数，但未更新扩散参数，为此，提出一种同时更新漂移与扩散参数的新方法。建立了考虑多种退化模式的随机退化模型，并依据首达时间原理推导出寿命及剩余寿命概率密度函数。先采用极大似然法离线估计模型的初始参数，再结合贝叶斯原理与期望最大化算法在线更新漂移参数与扩散参数。电容退化数据、陀螺仪漂移数据、铝合金构件裂纹增长数据验证了所提方法的有效性。

关键词: 退化建模, 参数估计, 参数更新, 剩余寿命预测

Abstract:

The existing online prediction methods for remaining life typically updated the drift parameters of stochastic degradation models based on Bayesian theory， while did not update the diffusion parameters. So a new method was proposed to simultaneously update both drift parameters and diffusion parameters. A stochastic degradation model was established considering multiple degradation modes， and the probability density functions of lifetime and remaining life were derived based on the first-passage-time principle. The initial parameters of the model were estimated offline by maximum likelihood method. Subsequently， the drift parameters and diffusion parameters were updated online by integrating Bayesian theory and expectation maximization algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed method was validated by capacitor degradation data， gyroscope drift data， and aluminum alloy components crack growth data.

Key words: degradation modeling, parameter estimation, parameter updating, remaining life prediction

中图分类号:

TP17

彭才华, 李建华, 任丽娜, 贾世琳. 带测量误差的设备非线性退化建模与剩余寿命在线预测[J]. 中国机械工程, 2026, 37(1): 147-161.

PENG Caihua, LI Jianhua, REN Lina, JIA Shilin. Nonlinear Degradation Modeling and Online Prediction of Remaining Life for Equipment with Measurement Errors[J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2026, 37(1): 147-161.

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链接本文: https://www.cmemo.org.cn/CN/10.3969/j.issn.1004-132X.2026.01.016

https://www.cmemo.org.cn/CN/Y2026/V37/I1/147

图/表 39

图1 电容退化数据

Fig.1 Degradation data of capacitors

图2 模型M1预测的电容剩余寿命概率密度函数曲线

Fig.2 Probability density function curves for capacitor remaining life predicted by model M1

图3 模型M1预测的电容剩余寿命曲线

Fig.3 Remaining life curves of the capacitor predicted by model M1

图4 模型M1预测的电容剩余寿命均方误差

Fig.4 Mean squared error for capacitor remaining life predicted by model M1

表1 模型M1预测的电容剩余寿命误差

Tab.1 Prediction errors for capacitor remaining life from model M1

方法	E_TMSE/月²	E_RMSE/月	E_MAE/月
方法Ⅰ	326.2281	24.4025	4.5532
方法Ⅱ	73.3883	0.7862	0.6248
方法Ⅲ	35.8910	0.3720	0.4600
方法Ⅳ	0.5570	0.2364	0.3793

图5 模型M2预测的电容剩余寿命概率密度函数曲线

Fig.5 Probability density function curves for capacitor remaining life predicted by model M2

图6 模型M2预测的电容剩余寿命曲线

Fig.6 Remaining life curves of the capacitor predicted by model M2

图7 模型M2预测的电容剩余寿命均方误差

Fig.7 Mean squared error for capacitor remaining life predicted by model M2

表2 模型M2预测的电容剩余寿命误差

Tab.2 Prediction errors for capacitor remaining life from model M2

方法	E_TMSE/月²	E_RMSE/月	E_MAE/月
方法Ⅰ	379.5832	24.6906	4.6608
方法Ⅱ	79.0720	0.9876	0.7294
方法Ⅲ	38.6987	0.4655	0.5657
方法Ⅳ	0.8733	0.2751	0.4847

图8 模型M3预测的电容剩余寿命概率密度函数曲线

Fig.8 Probability density function curves for capacitor remaining life predicted by model M3

图9 模型M3预测的电容剩余寿命曲线

Fig.9 Remaining life curves of the capacitor predicted by model M3

图10 模型M3预测的电容剩余寿命均方误差

Fig.10 Mean squared error for capacitor remaining life predicted by model M3

表3 模型M3预测的电容剩余寿命误差

Tab.3 Prediction errors for capacitor remaining life from model M3

方法	E_TMSE/月²	E_RMSE/月	E_MAE/月
方法Ⅰ	484.0462	42.5474	5.4540
方法Ⅱ	263.7029	3.0340	1.2960
方法Ⅲ	156.0063	1.8165	1.2115
方法Ⅳ	144.7175	1.5137	0.9737

图11 陀螺仪漂移数据

Fig.11 Gyroscope drift data

图12 模型M1预测的陀螺仪剩余寿命概率密度函数曲线

Fig.12 Probability density function curves for gyroscope remaining life predicted by model M1

图13 模型M1预测的陀螺仪剩余寿命曲线

Fig.13 Remaining life curves of the gyroscope predicted by model M1

图14 模型M1预测的陀螺仪剩余寿命均方误差

Fig.14 Mean squared error for gyroscope remaining life predicted by model M1

表4 模型M1预测的陀螺仪剩余寿命误差

Tab.4 Prediction errors for gyroscope remaining life from model M1

方法	E_TMSE/h²	E_RMSE/h	E_MAE/h
方法Ⅰ	2.9603×10³	329.3539	12.9184
方法Ⅱ	2.9055×10³	306.3711	12.1036
方法Ⅲ	2.0938×10³	283.1639	11.2551
方法Ⅳ	1.5650×10³	162.3579	10.8203

图15 模型M2预测的陀螺仪剩余寿命概率密度函数曲线

Fig.15 Probability density function curves for gyroscope remaining life predicted by model M2

图16 模型M2预测的陀螺仪剩余寿命曲线

Fig.16 Remaining life curves of the gyroscope predicted by model M2

图17 模型M2预测的陀螺仪剩余寿命均方误差

Fig.17 Mean squared error for gyroscope remaining life predicted by model M2

表5 模型M2预测的陀螺仪剩余寿命误差

Tab.5 Prediction errors for gyroscope remaining life from model M2

方法	E_TMSE/h²	E_RMSE/h	E_MAE/h
方法Ⅰ	1.6222×10³	167.0967	10.2399
方法Ⅱ	1.6061×10³	163.4507	10.1967
方法Ⅲ	1.5426×10³	158.1633	10.0415
方法Ⅳ	1.3300×10³	142.1238	9.9852

图18 模型M3预测的陀螺仪剩余寿命概率密度函数曲线

Fig.18 Probability density function curves for gyroscope remaining life predicted by model M3

图19 模型M3预测的陀螺仪剩余寿命曲线

Fig.19 Remaining life curves of the gyroscope predicted by model M3

图20 模型M3预测的陀螺仪剩余寿命均方误差

Fig.20 Mean squared error for gyroscope remaining life predicted by model M3

表6 模型M3预测的陀螺仪剩余寿命误差

Tab.6 Prediction errors for gyroscope remaining life from model M3

方法	E_TMSE/h²	E_RMSE/h	E_MAE/h
方法Ⅰ	286.5832	37.4123	6.0974
方法Ⅱ	282.4722	37.3894	6.0955
方法Ⅲ	146.5512	17.0075	4.0955
方法Ⅳ	83.4353	11.4387	1.0973

图21 铝合金构件疲劳裂纹增长数据

Fig.21 Fatigue crack growth data for aluminum alloy components

图22 模型M1预测的铝合金构件剩余寿命概率密度函数曲线

Fig.22 Probability density function curves for aluminum alloy components remaining life predicted by model M1

图23 模型M1预测的铝合金构件剩余寿命曲线

Fig.23 Remaining life prediction curves of aluminum alloy components by model M1

图24 模型M1预测的铝合金构件剩余寿命均方误差

Fig.24 Mean squared error for aluminum alloy components remaining life predicted by model M1

表7 M1预测的铝合金构件剩余寿命误差

Tab.7 Prediction errors for aluminum alloy components remaining life from model M1

方法	E_TMSE/Cycle²	E_RMSE/Cycle	E_MAE/Cycle
方法Ⅰ	2.8915	0.0186	0.1040
方法Ⅱ	1.9668	0.0072	0.0843
方法Ⅲ	1.0147	7.8324×10^-4	0.0280
方法Ⅳ	0.5192	3.7198×10^-4	0.0157

图25 模型M2预测的铝合金构件剩余寿命概率密度函数曲线

Fig.25 Probability density function curves for aluminum alloy components remaining life predicted by model M2

图26 模型M2预测的铝合金构件剩余寿命曲线

Fig.26 Remaining life prediction curves of aluminum alloy components by model M2

图27 模型M2预测的铝合金构件剩余寿命均方误差

Fig.27 Mean squared error for aluminum alloy components remaining life predicted by model M2

表8 M2预测的铝合金构件剩余寿命误差

Tab.8 Prediction errors for aluminum alloy components remaining life from model M2

方法	E_TMSE/Cycle²	E_RMSE/Cycle	E_MAE/Cycle
方法Ⅰ	0.4010	0.0015	0.0264
方法Ⅱ	0.1926	3.7219×10^-4	0.0157
方法Ⅲ	0.1075	1.5755×10^-4	0.0115
方法Ⅳ	0.0595	6.4055×10^-5	0.0080

图28 模型M3预测的铝合金构件剩余寿命概率密度函数曲线

Fig.28 Probability density function curves for aluminum alloy components remaining life predicted by model M3

图 29 模型M3预测的铝合金构件剩余寿命曲线

Fig. 29 Remaining life prediction curves of aluminum alloy components by model M3

图30 模型M3预测的铝合金构件剩余寿命均方误差

Fig.30 Mean squared error for aluminum alloy components remaining life predicted by model M3

表9 M3预测的铝合金构件剩余寿命误差

Tab.9 Prediction errors for aluminum alloy components remaining life from model M3

方法	E_TMSE/Cycle²	E_RMSE/Cycle	E_MAE/Cycle
方法Ⅰ	3.0789	0.0557	0.2016
方法Ⅱ	2.9413	0.0545	0.1961
方法Ⅲ	2.2155	0.0463	0.1781
方法Ⅳ	1.7311	0.0320	0.1508

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