Abstract: Aiming at the problems that high-speed train wheels showed phased characteristics in the degradation processes, a modeling and reliability analysis method of high-speed train wheel degradation was proposed based on two-stage Wiener process. On the basis of the Markov chain Monte-Carlo（MCMC） method to estimate the unknown parameters of the model, the reliability function curve and reliability life of the wheel were obtained by Monte-Carlo simulation method for the problems that the two-stage degradation processes of the wheel were complex and the reliability analysis form was difficult to solve. Finally, the effectiveness of the model was verified by taking the measured data of a locomotive and bogie wheel in a single repair cycle as an example. The results show that due to the operating environment, the change point position of the wheel degradation processes on different sides of the bogie is different. Compared with the reliability evaluation results of the degradation model without considering the phased characteristics, the proposed model is more in line with the actual field situation. According to the reliable life prediction results, affected by the operating environment, the wheel degradation processes on different sides of the bogie has different changing point positions. By continuously obtaining the wheel degradation data, the reliable life value of the wheels may be calculated and updated by using the model proposed herein, which provides theoretical guidance for the further optimization of the wheel repair cycle.

Key words: high-speed train wheel, two-stage Wiener process, reliability, degenerate modeling, Monte-Carlo simluation

摘要： 针对高速列车车轮在退化过程中呈现两阶段特征的问题，提出一种基于两阶段非线性Wiener过程的高速列车车轮退化建模及可靠性分析方法。采用CUSUM（CUmulative SUM）算法实现车轮退化过程变点判别，在此基础上，利用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法估计模型未知参数。针对车轮两阶段退化过程较为复杂、可靠度解析形式难以求解的问题，通过蒙特卡罗模拟方法求解得到车轮可靠度函数曲线和可靠寿命。最后以某机车同转向架车轮单个镟修周期内的实测数据为例，验证了模型的有效性。结果表明：受运营环境影响，同转向架不同侧车轮退化过程出现变点的位置不同；相较于未考虑阶段性特征的退化模型，所提模型可靠性评估结果更符合现场实际；通过不断获取车轮退化数据，可采用所提模型计算并更新车轮可靠寿命值，为车轮镟修周期的进一步优化提供了理论指导。

关键词: 高速列车车轮, 两阶段Wiener过程, 可靠度, 退化建模, 蒙特卡罗模拟