基于灰色系统的过热器管壁温度预测模型

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以炉外测点温度数据为基础，建立了锅炉过热器管进出口温度的灰色预测模型，并结合有限容积法实现了单管各段管壁温度分布计算。利用某电厂末级过热器管壁进出口实测数据，分析了三种工况下的预测精度。结果表明：运行工况下的预测精度高于99%，根据预测结果进行各管段的管壁温度计算误差小于2.9℃。该模型能够较为精确地预测和计算管壁温度的变化趋势，对火电机组的安全运行有指导意义。

关键词: 灰色系统, 过热器管壁, 有限容积法, 预测模型

Abstract: A grey model was established for forecasting the temperatures in the inlet and outlet sections of superheater tubes in power plants, based on the external furnace temperature data. Combined with the finite volume method, the temperature distribution of the single tube wall was calculated. The real measured data of final superheater were used as inputs of the prediction model to analyze the prediction accuracy under three conditions. Results show that the accuracy exceeds 99%. Under the running conditions, the calculated errors of temperature of single tube wall are less than 2.9℃. The model may predict and calculate the variation of tube temperature accurately, and has good guiding significances for the safety operation in power plants.

Key words: grey system, superheater tube wall, finite volume method, prediction model

中图分类号:

徐鸿1;邓博1;蒋东方2;郭鹏1;倪永中1. 基于灰色系统的过热器管壁温度预测模型[J]. 中国机械工程.

XU Hong1;DENG Bo1;JIANG Dongfang2;GUO Peng1;NI Yongzhong1. Prediction Model of Superheater Tube Wall Temperatures Based on Grey System[J]. China Mechanical Engineering.

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