Abstract:

The values of reliability assessment based on the MIL-HDBK-189, GJB/Z77 and AMSAA-BISE model for the failure data would be greater than the actual values.Herein, the expectation of each time-to-failure was fist obtained by using the hierarchical Bayesian method and least squares estimation method. Then, the growth testing data was analyzed through a new model obtained by substituting the expectation for the time-to-failure in AMSAA model. The effects of the three statistical methods mentioned above were assessed based on the Monte Carlo method. The results indicate the values of reliability assessment by applying the method proposed are closer to the actual values.

Key words: reliability growth, AMSAA model, AMSAA-BISE model, multi-systems, synchronous corrective action, hierarchical Bayesian estimation

摘要：

多台同型产品同步纠正可靠性增长试验所得到的数据是单失效数据,依据美军标/国军标和AMSAA-BISE模型得到的分析结果,该数据往往高于产品实际可靠性水平。针对这种情况,提出一种数据统计分析的新方法,即先采取多层Bayes估计法和加权最小二乘估计法,求得各个失效发生时间的期望值,替代单台AMSAA模型中的失效时间,再实现对产品可靠性增长试验数据的统计分析。通过对以上方法进行蒙特卡罗模拟,对比分析结果表明,利用新方法所得结果更接近产品的实际可靠性水平。

关键词: 可靠性增长, AMSAA模型, AMSAA-BISE模型, 多台同型产品, 同步纠正, 多层Bayes估计