Abstract:

In view of the problems that the classical statistic method can not make use of the historical test information and produce the evaluation conclusion with low confidence level and high risk under the condition of small sample, a new testability evaluation method based on test data in development stages was proposed herein. Firstly, after modeling and analysis of the classical evaluation method, a Bayes evaluation model for testability of complex equipment based on fusing the historical samples and the current samples were established by using Bayes theory. The paper presented a new mixed Beta prior distribution after introducing the concept of prior data compatibility, and determined the inheritance factor by using goodness of fit between the historical test informations and the current informations. Finally, the fault detection rate of an example was validated by means of such a model. The results show that this method can produce the evaluation conclusion with high confidence level in the same test condition and show that this method is more rational than the classical statistical evaluation method.

Key words: complex equipment, testability, classical evaluation method, Bayes theory

摘要：

针对当前测试性评估方法中，经典方法无法利用历史测试性试验信息，且在小样本量下，评估结论置信度低、风险大的问题，提出了一种基于研制阶段试验数据的复杂装备测试性评估模型。在对经典评估方法进行建模与分析的基础上，运用Bayes理论，建立了综合利用研制阶段历史试验信息和现场试验数据的Bayes测试性评估模型;该模型结合验前信息与现场信息的相容性给出了一种混合验前分布，并利用拟合优度检验确定继承因子。最后开展了案例应用研究，结果表明，在相同的现场试验条件下，该模型能给出较高置信度的测试性评估结论，比经典评估方法更合理。


关键词: 复杂装备, 测试性, 经典评估方法, Bayes理论