In order to reveal the variation rule of interference fit force for connecting rod small end bushing, the influencing factors of fit force were analyzed, which show that the fit force is a random variables, it will change with the used time. On this basis, a grey prediction model of fit force was established according to grey theory, the accuracy of prediction mode was verified by experiments. The testing results show that the prediction results of interference fit force for connecting rod small end bushing has high precision, the grey prediction model can better reveal variation rule of fit force with used time.

为揭示连杆小头衬套过盈连接固持力的变化规律,分析了固持力的影响因素,得出该固持力是一个随时间变化的随机量。在此基础上,采用灰色理论建立固持力的灰色预测模型,并对预测模型精度进行验证。验证结果表明：连杆小头衬套过盈连接固持力预测结果的准确性高,灰色预测模型能较好地揭示固持力随时间的变化规律。

连杆, 过盈连接, 固持力, 灰色预测