This paper adopted time series AR model to forecast vehicle motion parameters, and represent the model in detail. In addition, using roll velocity as an example which is an important parameter in vehicle driving to discuss the application of AR model in active safety. The results show that the forecasting method has achieved some effectivenesses. Furthermore, AR method just makes use of its own historical data to build models and forecast. Therefore, they have virtues of briefness, convenience, universality.

采用AR模型开展了汽车运动参数预测研究，详细分析了其建模预测方法，并以侧倾角速度这一车辆行驶时的关键参数为例，讨论了AR模型在行驶安全运动参数预测中的应用，结果显示该模型取得了一定的效果。此外，AR模型仅利用自身的历史数据进行建模预测，故具有简便易行、通用性好、可操作性强的特点。

汽车主动安全, 运动参数预测, AR建模预测, 侧倾角速度