A novel HMC-based operation reliability prediction method was proposed herein in order to achieve the near-zero breakdown status of core equipment. The HMC model was introduced considering the complicated relation with dynamic characteristics and operational state of the equipment, and the hidden state transition process was identified through monitoring the dynamic characteristics of the equipment with multiple observation sequences. Furthermore, Chapman-Kolmogorov equation was adopted to infer the operation reliability level of the equipment. Finally, an experiment was implemented on OTM 650 CNC milling machine to validate the feasibility of the proposed method.

operation reliability, hidden Markov chain(HMC), state transition, vector quantization

为使企业内关键装备趋于零故障运转,提出了一种基于隐马尔科夫链模型的装备运行可靠性预测方法。它针对装备使用过程中所监测到的性能特征参数并不能与运行状态简单地一一对应的问题,引入隐马尔科夫链模型来识别多观测序列下装备隐含的状态变迁过程。根据建立的状态变迁模型并结合切普曼-柯尔莫哥洛夫微分方程来推断装备运行可靠性。最后,在欧泰OTM 650数控铣床上验证了该方法的可行性。

运行可靠性, 隐马尔科夫链, 状态变迁, 矢量量化