Multi-dimensional Dynamic Bayesian Network and Its Importance Measure Analysis Method

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-132X.2022.19.008

Abstract

Abstract: The Bayesian network analysis method was an important method of reliability analysis, but the traditional Bayesian network analysis method was limited to analyze the influences of single factors, and there was a large analysis deviation when the system reliability was affected by multiple factors. Therefore, a multi-dimensional dynamic Bayesian network analysis method was proposed, which used unit step function and impulse function to construct Bayesian network time continuity, and established the failure probability distribution function when the root node was affected by multiple factors. Then, a multi-dimensional dynamic Bayesian network importance measure analysis method was proposed by expanding the traditional importance measure analysis method. Through the engineering example analyses of the hydraulic system of the bucket wheel machine tensioning mechanisms, and compared with the analysis results of the discrete-time Bayesian network analysis method, the feasibility and superiority of the multi-dimensional dynamic Bayesian network and its importance measure analysis method were verified, which provides a more accurate quantitative basis for system improvement and weak link identification.

Key words: multi-dimensional dynamic Bayesian network, importance measure, reliability analysis, hydraulic system

摘要： 贝叶斯网络分析方法是可靠性分析的重要方法，但传统贝叶斯网络分析方法局限于分析单因素影响，当系统可靠性受多因素影响时会产生较大分析偏差。为此，提出多维动态贝叶斯网络分析方法，借助单位阶跃函数与冲激函数进行贝叶斯网络时间连续化构造，建立根节点受多因素影响时系统的失效概率分布函数。在此基础上，对传统重要度分析方法进行多维扩展，提出多维动态贝叶斯网络重要度分析方法。通过对斗轮机张紧机构液压系统进行工程实例分析，并与离散时间贝叶斯网络分析方法分析结果对比，验证了多维动态贝叶斯网络及其重要度分析方法的可行性和优越性，为系统改进与薄弱环节识别提供了更为准确的量化依据。

关键词: 多维动态贝叶斯网络, 重要度, 可靠性分析, 液压系统

CLC Number:

CHEN Dongning, HU Yanlong, YAO Chengyu, WANG Kuantong, MA Lei, . Multi-dimensional Dynamic Bayesian Network and Its Importance Measure Analysis Method[J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2022, 33(19): 2340-2346.

陈东宁, 胡彦龙, 姚成玉, 王宽通, 马雷, . 多维动态贝叶斯网络及其重要度分析方法[J]. 中国机械工程, 2022, 33(19): 2340-2346.

References

［1］PEARL J. Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems：Networks of Plausible Inference［M］. San Francisco：Morgan Kaufmann, 1988.
［2］FAKHRAYAR D, KHAKZAD N, RENIERS G, et al. Security Vulnerability Assessment of Gas Pipelines Using Discrete-time Bayesian Network［J］. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2017, 111：714-725.
［3］周忠宝, 周经伦, 孙权, 等. 基于离散时间贝叶斯网络的动态故障树分析方法［J］. 西安交通大学学报, 2007, 41(6)：732-736.
ZHOU Zhongbao, ZHOU Jinglun, SUN Quan, et al. Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis Method Based on Discrete Time Bayesian Networks［J］. Journal of Xian Jiaotong University, 2007, 41(6)：732-736.
［4］王康, 齐金平, 周亚辉, 等. 基于离散时间贝叶斯网络的列控中心可靠性分析［J］. 中国机械工程, 2021, 32(4)：390-398.
WANG Kang, QI Jinping, ZHOU Yahui, et al. Reliability Analysis of Train Control Center Based on Discrete-time Bayesian Network［J］. China Mechanical Engineering, 2021, 32(4)：390-398.
［5］王晓明, 李彦锋, 李爱峰, 等. 模糊数据下基于连续时间贝叶斯网络的整流回馈系统可靠性建模与评估［J］. 机械工程学报, 2015, 51(14)：167-174.
WANG Xiaoming, LI Yanfeng, LI Aifeng, et al. Reliability Modeling and Evaluation of Rectifier Feedback System Based on Continuous-time Bayesian Network under Fuzzy Data［J］. Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2015, 51(14)：167-174 .
［6］BOUDALI H, DUGAN J B. A Continuous-time Bayesian Network Reliability Modeling and Analysis Framework［J］. IEEE Transaction on Reliability, 2006, 55(1)：86-97.
［7］崔铁军, 马云东. 多维空间故障树构建及应用研究［J］. 中国安全科学学报, 2013, 23(4)：32-37.
CUI Tiejun, MA Yundong. Research on Multi-dimensional Space Fault Tree Construction and Application［J］. China Safety Science Journal, 2013, 23(4)：32-37.
［8］陈东宁, 许敬宇, 姚成玉, 等. 连续时间多维T-S动态故障树分析方法［J］.机械工程学报，2021, 57(10)：231-244.
CHEN Dongning, XU Jingyu, Yao Chengyu, et al. Continuous Time Multi-dimensional T-S Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis Method［J］. Journal of Mechanical Engineering，2021, 57(10)：231-244.
［9］钱虹, 古雅琦, 刘鑫杰. 基于动态故障树的核反应堆稳压器数字压力控制装置可靠性研究［J］.核动力工程, 2019, 40(3)：103-108.
QIAN Hong, GU Yaqi, LIU Xinjie. Reliability Study of Digital Pressure Control Device for Nuclear Reactor Regulator Based on Dynamic Fault Tree［J］. Nuclear Power Engineering, 2019, 40(3)：103-108.
［10］BIRNBAUM Z W. On The Important of Different Components in a Multicomponent System［J］. Multivariate Analysis Ⅱ, 1968：581-592.
［11］姚成玉, 张荧驿, 陈东宁, 等. T-S模糊重要度分析方法研究［J］. 机械工程学报, 2011, 47(12)：163-169.
YAO Chengyu, ZHANG Yingyi, CHEN Dongning, et al. Research on T-S Fuzzy Importance Analysis Method［J］. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2011, 47(12)：163-169.
［12］陈东宁, 许敬宇, 姚成玉, 等. 多维T-S故障树及重要度分析方法［J］. 仪器仪表学报, 2020, 41(10)：54-64.
CHEN Dongning, XU Jingyu, YAO Chengyu, et al. Multi-dimensional T-S Fault Tree and Importance Analysis Method［J］. Chinese Journal of Scientific Instrument, 2020, 41(10)：54-64.
［13］符林芳, 代美泉, 郭婷. 斗轮式堆料机液压系统常见故障分析及液压系统改造［J］. 液压与气动, 2019, (3)：113-119.
FU Linfang, DAI Meiquan, GUO Ting. Analysis of Common Faults in Hydraulic System of Bucket Wheel Stacker and Retrofit of Hydraulic System［J］. Chinese Hydraulics & Pneumatics, 2019, (3)：113-119.
［14］DUGAN J B, BAVUSO S J, BOYD M A. Dynamic Fault-tree Models for Fault-tolerant Computer Systems［J］. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 1992, 41(3)：363-377.

[1]	QU Xiaozhang, ZHANG Jiabei, ZHAI Fangzhi. Reliability-based Analysis for Two-phase Flow of Locomotive Side Wall Filtration Systems with Non-random Load Uncertainty [J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2023, 34(15): 1881-1889.
[2]	HE Qingchuan, LIU Hui, PAN Jun, CHEN Wenhua. Detecting Internal Leakage in Electro-Hydraulic Actuators Based on Operational States of Motor [J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2023, 34(12): 1407-1414.
[3]	WANG Qiao, DU Xuesong, SONG Chaosheng, ZHU Caichao, SUN Jianquan, LIAO Delin. Research on Accelerated Life Test Method of Harmonic Reducers [J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2022, 33(19): 2317-2324.
[4]	LIU Jun, SHI Chaohuan, LIN Beiqing, HUANG He. Design and Steering Angle Control of Steering-by-Wire Hydraulic Systems for Multi-axle Vehicles [J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2022, 33(14): 1741-1750.
[5]	YI Qian, LI Congbo, PAN Jian, ZHANG You. Reliability Analysis of Machining Accuracy and Processing Parameter Optimization for Thin-plate Parts [J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2022, 33(11): 1269-1277.
[6]	WANG Lixin, ZHAO Dingxuan, LIU Fucai, LIU Qian, ZHANG Zhuxin. ADRC for Electro-hydraulic Position Servo Systems Based on Dead-zone Compensation#br# [J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2021, 32(12): 1432-1442.
[7]	WANG Kang, QI Jinping, ZHOU Yahui, LI Shaoxiong, ZHAO Ruihu, GUO Hao. Reliability Analysis of Train Control Center Based on Discrete-time Bayesian Network [J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2021, 32(04): 390-398.
[8]	QIN Yalu1,3;CAI Wei1,3;WANG Liugen1,3;LEI Zheng2;ZHAO Jingyi1,3;WANG Qiming2. Numerical Study of Cavitation Effects of Electro-hydraulic Actuator System of FAST [J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2021, 32(02): 171-179.
[9]	CHEN Dongning1,2;HOU Annong3;YAO Chengyu3;HOU Xin1,2;XING Ran3. A Novel Dynamic Bayesian Network Analysis Method [J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2020, 31(12): 1394-1406,1414.
[10]	YANG Jun1;HUANG Shuzhou1;ZENG Le2. Robust Switched Control Strategy of Large Erecting Equipment Hydraulic Systems [J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2019, 30(22): 2698-2703.
[11]	XIE Shaojun;PAN Baisong;LUO Luping;XIANG Yongyong. A Hybrid Reliability Analysis Method with Mixture of Random and Dependent Interval Variables [J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2019, 30(14): 1673-1678,1683.
[12]	ZHAI Fugang1;ZHAO Guichun1;WEI Lizhong1;YAO Jing1,2;LI Dongming3. Energy Recovery and Control of Forging Manipulators Based on Matrix Circuit [J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2019, 30(14): 1688-1695.
[13]	YAO Jing1,2,3;LI Yao3;ZHAI Fugang3;ZHU Hanyin3;ZHANG Yin4. Energy Dissipation Analysis of Forging Manipulator Hydraulic Systems in Stretching Processes [J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2019, 30(04): 385-392.
[14]	E Dongchen 1,2;ZHANG Lijie1,2 . Car Dumper Hydraulic System Fault Diagnosis Based on Multi-block MPCA [J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2018, 29(08): 958-964.
[15]	SHEN Guoqiang1;HE Deqiang1;TAN Wenju2;MIAO Jian1. Research on Reliability of Key Parts of Locomotive and Rolling Stocks Based on Optimized ABC Algorithm [J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2018, 29(03): 279-285.