关键词: 灰色系统理论, GO法, 可靠性, 动态预测分析, 液压系统

Abstract:

According to the fact that the existing reliability prediction technology cannot reflect well the effects of processes under different working conditions on reliability due to neglecting changes of reliability and failure rate with running time,a practical reliability prediction analysis model was proposed by combining the
GO method and the grey system theory considering various operating conditions of the components of a machining center.This method was used in reliability analysis of the hydraulic system of tray automatic exchange device(TAED) of a machining center.Firstly,through a systematical analysis of hydraulic system of tray automatic exchange device of  the machining center,its basic structural model was summarized,and the model of GO chart for the hydraulic system was established.Then,the gray dynamic prediction for the hydraulic system was derived based on GM(1,1) model combining the GO method.Finally,
the availability and accuracy of this method in the analysis and reliability evaluation of the machining center were verified by comparing the calculated results of this method with that of the traditional static GO method and the FTA.This approach provides a theoretical basis for the prevention of failures of the hydraulic system of tray automatic exchange device, the improvement of the system reliability and security, and the development of security controls.

Key words: grey system theory, GO method, reliability, dynamic prediction analysis, hydraulic system