基于模糊动态故障树的动车制动系统可靠性分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对动车制动系统实际工作环境中的故障发生率具有模糊不确定性以及故障的发生具有动态性的特点，把模糊数学和马尔可夫（Markov）模型与故障树模型相结合提出一种基于模糊Markov模型的动态故障树分析方法，通过三角模糊数和扩展原理来表示底事件故障率和Markov模型中不同状态转移率的模糊性。利用动态故障树模型分析获得了系统故障树顶事件模糊故障率的隶属函数。解决了不确定条件下的动态系统可靠性分析问题，对兰新高速铁路上运行的动车组的制动系统进行分析，获得了制动系统可靠度预测曲线，为该路线上运行的动车的制动系统针对故障特点制定相应的检修和维护方案提供了理论依据。

关键词: 电力动车组, 制动系统, 模糊理论, 故障树, Markov模型, 可靠性

Abstract: According to the fuzzy uncertainty of the failure incidence rates and the dynamic characteristics of the fault occurrence under the actual working environments of the EMUs braking systems, Markov model and fault tree model were combined to present a dynamic fault tree analysis method based on fuzzy Markov model. The bottom event failure rates and ambiguity of different state transition rates in Markov models were expressed by triangular fuzzy number and extension principle. The membership function of the fuzzy fault rate of the system fault tree top event was obtained by using the dynamic fault tree model. This research solves the reliability analysis problems of dynamic systems under uncertain conditions. The braking systems of EMUs on the Lanzhou-Wulumuqi high-speed railway dedicated line were analyzed, and the reliability of the braking system curves were obtained. It provides a theoretical basis for making the corresponding maintenance and repair plans for the braking systems of the trains running on this route according to the fault characteristics.

Key words: electric multiple units(EMUs), brake system； fuzzy theory； fault tree； Markov model； reliability

中图分类号:

U279.3

郭济鸣1，2；齐金平1，2；李兴运1. 基于模糊动态故障树的动车制动系统可靠性分析[J]. 中国机械工程.

GUO Jiming1,2；QI Jinping1,2；LI Xingyun1. Reliability Analysis of EMUs Braking Systems with Fuzzy Dynamic Fault Tree[J]. China Mechanical Engineering.

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