多台同型产品同步纠正可靠性增长试验数据统计分析方法研究

中国机械工程 ›› 2013, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (11): 1500-1504.

多台同型产品同步纠正可靠性增长试验数据统计分析方法研究

潘骏;靳方建;陈文华;王孟;许锐敏;朱旭洋

浙江理工大学浙江省机电产品可靠性技术研究重点实验室,杭州,310018

出版日期:2013-06-10 发布日期:2013-06-04
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51075370，50935002，51105341）；浙江省重点科技创新团队资助项目（2010R50005）
National Natural Science Foundation of China（No. 51075370，50935002，51105341）;

Research on Statistical Method of Reliability Growth Testing Data for Multi-systems with Synchronous Corrective Actions

Pan Jun;Jin Fangjian;Chen Wenhua;Wang Meng;Xu Ruimin;Zhu Xuyang

Zhejiang Province's Key Laboratory of Reliability Technology for Mechanical & Electrical Product,Zhejiang Sci-Tech University,Hangzhou,310018

Online:2013-06-10 Published:2013-06-04
Supported by:

National Natural Science Foundation of China（No. 51075370，50935002，51105341）;

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

多台同型产品同步纠正可靠性增长试验所得到的数据是单失效数据,依据美军标/国军标和AMSAA-BISE模型得到的分析结果,该数据往往高于产品实际可靠性水平。针对这种情况,提出一种数据统计分析的新方法,即先采取多层Bayes估计法和加权最小二乘估计法,求得各个失效发生时间的期望值,替代单台AMSAA模型中的失效时间,再实现对产品可靠性增长试验数据的统计分析。通过对以上方法进行蒙特卡罗模拟,对比分析结果表明,利用新方法所得结果更接近产品的实际可靠性水平。

关键词: 可靠性增长, AMSAA模型, AMSAA-BISE模型, 多台同型产品, 同步纠正, 多层Bayes估计

Abstract:

The values of reliability assessment based on the MIL-HDBK-189, GJB/Z77 and AMSAA-BISE model for the failure data would be greater than the actual values.Herein, the expectation of each time-to-failure was fist obtained by using the hierarchical Bayesian method and least squares estimation method. Then, the growth testing data was analyzed through a new model obtained by substituting the expectation for the time-to-failure in AMSAA model. The effects of the three statistical methods mentioned above were assessed based on the Monte Carlo method. The results indicate the values of reliability assessment by applying the method proposed are closer to the actual values.

Key words: reliability growth, AMSAA model, AMSAA-BISE model, multi-systems, synchronous corrective action, hierarchical Bayesian estimation

中图分类号:

V240.2

潘骏, 靳方建, 陈文华, 王孟, 许锐敏, 朱旭洋. 多台同型产品同步纠正可靠性增长试验数据统计分析方法研究[J]. 中国机械工程, 2013, 24(11): 1500-1504.

BO Jun, JIN Fang-Jian, CHEN Wen-Hua, WANG Meng, HU Dui-Min, SHU Xu-Xiang. Research on Statistical Method of Reliability Growth Testing Data for Multi-systems with Synchronous Corrective Actions[J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2013, 24(11): 1500-1504.

参考文献

[1]梅文华. 可靠性增长试验[M]. 北京: 国防工业出版社, 2003.
[2]Weiss H K. Estimation of Reliability Growth in a Complex System with a Poisson-type Failure[J]. Operations Research, 1956,4:532-545.
[3]Duane J T. Technical Information Series Report DF62MD300[R].Erie, PA1：General Electric Co., DCM & G Dept, 1962.
[4]Virene E P. Reliability Growth and Its Upper Limit[C]//1968 Proceedings Annual of Symposium on Reliability. Boston, Massachusetts, 1968:265-270.
[5]Crow L H. Estimation Procedures for the Duane Model,ADA019372[R].Philadelphia: SIMA, 1972.
[6]Crow L H. Reliability Analysis for Complex, Repairable Systems,ADA020296[R].Philadelphia: SIMA, 1975.
[7]Crow L H. Confidence Interval Procedures for Reliability Growth Analysis, ADA044788[R].Philadelphia: SIMA, 1977.
[8]周源泉, 翁朝曦. 可靠性增长[M]. 北京：科学出版社, 1992.
[9]Zhou Yuanquan, Weng Zhaoxi.AMSAA-BISE Model[C]//The 3rd Japan-China Symposium on Statistics. Tokyo, Japan, 1989:179-182.
[10]喻天翔，宋笔锋，崔卫民. 多台同型系统的可靠性增长模型分析研究[J].机械强度，2009,31(4):598-603.
Yu Tianxiang，Song Bifeng，Cui Weimin，et al．Research on Reliability Growth Models for Multi-Systems Development Testing[J]．Journal of Mechanical Strength，2009，31(4)：598-603．
[11]梅文华, 杨先义. 对GJB/Z77多台同型产品增长模型的分析[J] . 航空学报，1999, 20(1): 65-68.
Mei Wenhua，Yang Yixian．Comments on Reliability Growth Models in GJB/Z77 for Multi-Systems Development[J]．Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica，1999， 20(1)：65-68．
[12]MIL-HDBK-781 Reliability Test Methods, Plans and Environments for Engineering Development, Qualification and Production[S].1987.
[13]陈文华, 崔杰,樊晓燕, 等．单失效数据的可靠性统计分析[J]. 机械工程学报, 2003, 39(9):44-48.
Chen Wenhua，Cui Jie，Fan Xiaoyan，et al．Reliability Statistical Analysis of Data only One Failure[J]．Chinese Journal of Mechnical Engineering， 2003，39(9)：44-48．
[14]戴树森, 费鹤良，王玲玲，等. 可靠性试验及其统计分析[M]. 北京：国防工业出版社, 1989.
[15]Berger J Q. statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis[M]. New York: Springer Verlag, 1985.
[16]叶尔骅. 非齐次Poisson过程的若干新性质[J]. 南京航空学院学报，1991,23(4):99-107.
Ye Erhua．Some New Properties of Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process[J]．Journal of Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics，1991，23(4)：99-107．