[学科发展]机械产品可靠性试验技术研究现状与展望

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 概述了可靠性工程发展的历史，总结了可靠性试验发展概况以及机械产品可靠性试验面临的问题；综述了加速寿命试验和加速退化试验建模、试验数据分析和试验方案优化设计方法的研究进展，以及高加速寿命试验技术的研究进展；展望了机械产品可靠性试验技术的发展前景，并提出了促进可靠性试验理论方法工程应用的解决方案。

关键词: 机械产品, 可靠性试验, 加速寿命试验, 加速退化试验, 高加速寿命试验

Abstract: An overview of the development of reliability engineering was provide， and the recent developments of reliability test and problems with reliability test of mechanical products were summarized. The developments of methods on how to conduct statistical analysis and design test plan of accelerated life test and accelerated degradation test were reviewed, and also the developments of high accelerated life test and high accelerated stress screening test were reviewed. The development prospect of reliability test technology of mechanical products was presented and the guidelines were provided to promote the engineering applications of reliability test theory and methods.

Key words: mechanical products, reliability test, accelerated life test, accelerated degradation test, highly accelerated life test

中图分类号:

TH17
ＴH114

陈文华, 贺青川, 潘骏, 钱萍, 钟立强. [学科发展]机械产品可靠性试验技术研究现状与展望[J]. 中国机械工程.

CHEN Wenhua, HE Qingchuan, PAN Jun, QIAN Ping, ZHONG Liqiang. Reliability Test Technology of Mechanical Products—Overview and Prospect[J]. China Mechanical Engineering.

参考文献

[1]AGREE. Reliability of Military Electronic Equipment, Report of the Advisory Group on Reliability of Electronic Equipment [R]. Washington D C:Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense, 1957.
[2]姜同敏, 王晓红. 可靠性与寿命试验技术[M]. 北京:国防工业出版社，2012.
JIANG Tongmin, WANG Xianghong. Reliability Test and Life Test Technology [M]. Beijing:National Defense Industry Press，2012.
[3]CHEN Wenhua, GAO Liang, PAN Jun, et al. Design of Accelerated Life Test Plans—overview and Prospect[J]. Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2018,31(13):1-15.
[4]许卫宝，钟涛. 机械产品可靠性设计与试验[M]. 北京:国防工业出版社，2015.
XU Weibao, ZHONG Tao. Reliability Design and Test of Mechnical Product [M]. Beijing:National Defense Industry Press，2015.
[5]YURKOWSKY W, SCHAFER R E, FINKELSTEIN J M. Accelerated Testing Technology[R].Ohio： ROME Air Development Center RADC-TR 67-420 (Ⅰ), 1967.
[6]YURKOWSKY W, SCHAFER R E, FINKELSTEIN J M. Accelerated Testing Technology[R]. Ohio： ROME Air Development Center RADC-TR 67-420(Ⅱ), 1967.
[7]BAI D S, CHA M S, CHUNG S W. Optimum Simple Ramp Tests for the Weibull Distribution and Type-I Censoring[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 1992, 41(3):407-413.
[8]BAI D S, CHUN Y R, CHA M S. Time-censored Ramp Tests with Stress Bound for Weibull Life Distribution[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 1997, 46(1):99-107.
[9]HE Qingchuan, CHEN Wenhua, PAN Jun, et al. Improved Step Stress Accelerated Life Testing Method for Electronic Product [J]. Microelectronic Reliability, 2012, 52(11):2773-2780.
[10]CHEN Wenhua, YANG Fan, PAN Jun, et al. Novel Accelerating Life Test Method and Its Application by Combining Constant Stress and Progressive Stress[J]. Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2018, 31(82):1-8.
[11]ESCOBAR L A, MEEKER W Q. Planning Accelerated Life Tests with Two or More Experimental Factors[J]. Technometrics, 1995, 37(4):411-427.
[12]CHEN Wenhua, GAO Liang, LIU Juan, et al. Optimal Design of Multiple Stress Accelerated Life Test Plan on the Non-rectangle Test Region[J]. Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2012, 25(6):1 231-1 237.
[13]GRAY K A， PASCHKEWITZ J J. Next Generation HALT and HASS:Robust Design for Electronics and Systems [M]. New York:John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 2016.
[14]ENRICO Z. Some Challenges and Opportunities in Reliability Engineering [J]. IEEE Transactions Reliability, 2016， 65(4):1769-1782.
[15]GAO Liang, CHEN Wenhua, QIAN Ping, et al. Optimal Design of Multiple Stresses Accelerated Life Test Plan Based on Transforming the Multiple Stresses to Single Stress[J]. Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2014, 27(6):1125-1132.
[16]GAO Liang, CHEN Wenhua, QIAN Ping, et al. Optimal Time-censored Constant-stress ALT Plan Based on Chord of Nonlinear Stress-life Relationship[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2016, 65(3):1496-1508.
[17]SUHIR E. Could Electronics Reliability Be Predicted, Quantified and Assured [J]. Microelectronic Reliability, 2013, 53(7):925-936.
[18]FRANK J, MARTIN K, BERND B. Selection of Acceleration Models for Test Planning and Model Usage [J]. IEEE Transactions Reliability, 2017, 66(2):298-308.
[19]钱萍, 陈文华, 马子魁, 等. 综合应力加速寿命模型验证方法的研究[J]. 机械工程学报, 2010, 46(24):156-161.
QIAN Ping, CHEN Wenhua, MA Zikui, et al. Research of Multiple Stresses Accelerated Life Model Verification Method [J]. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2010, 46(24):156-161.
[20]PAN R, YANG T, SEO K. Planning Constant-stress Accelerated Life Tests for Acceleration Model Selection[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2015, 64(4):1356-1366.
[21]凌光，戴怡，王仲民. 面向数控系统可靠性评估的最大熵先验信息解[J]. 机械工程学报， 2012，48(6):157-161.
LING Guang, DAI Yi, WANG Zhongmin. Maximum Entropy Prior Information Solution for Numerical Control System Reliability Assessment [J]. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2012, 48(6):157-161.
[22]SUO Hailong，GAO Jianmin，JIANG Hongquan，et al. Bootstrap and Maximum Entropy Based Small-sample Product Lifetime Probability Distribution[J]. IFAC-Papers on Line，2015，48(3)：219-224.
[23]CHEN Wenhua, GAO Liang, LIU Juan, et al. Optimal Design of Multiple Stress Accelerated Life Test Plan on the Non-rectangle Test Region[J]. Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2012, 25(6):1231-1237.
[24]陈文华, 冯红艺, 钱萍, 等. 综合应力加速寿命试验方案优化设计理论与方法[J]. 机械工程学报, 2006, 42(12):101-105.
CHEN Wenhua, FENG Hongyi, QIAN Ping, et al. Theory & Method for Optimum Design of Accelerated Life Test Plan under Multiple Stresses [J]. Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2006, 42(12):101-105.
[25]陈文华, 钱萍, 马子魁, 等. 基于定时测试的综合应力加速寿命试验方案优化设计[J]. 仪器仪表学报, 2009, 30(12):2545-2550.
CHEN Wenhua, QIAN Ping, MA Zikui, et al. Optimum Design of Multiple Stress Accelerated Life Test Plan under Periodic Inspection [J]. Chinese Journal of Scientific Instrument, 2009, 30(12):2545-2550.
[26]GAO Liang, CHEN Wenhua, LIU Juan, et al. Design Criteria for Planning Multiple Stresses Accelerated Life Test[C] ∥Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Reliability Maintainability & Safety. Guiyang, 2011:1 141-1 146.
[27]LIU Xiao, TANG L C. A Sequential Constant-stress Accelerated Life Testing Scheme and Its Bayesian Inference[J]. Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 2009, 25:91-109.
[28]MA Haiming, MEEKER W Q. Strategy for Planning Accelerated Life Tests with Small Sample Sizes [J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2010, 59(4):610-619.
[29]NELSON W B. Accelerated Testing:Statistical Models, Test Plans, Data Analyses[M]. New York:Wiley, 2004.
[30]MEEKER W Q， ESCOBAR L A. Statistical Methods for Reliability Data[M]. New York:Wiley, 1998.
[31]金光. 基于退化的可靠性技术－模型、方法及应用[M]. 北京:国防工业出版社， 2014.
JIN Guang.Reliability Technology Based on Degradation-Model, Method and Application [M]. Beijing:National Defense Industry Press，2014.
[32]PARK J I, BAE S J. Direct Prediction Methods on Lifetime Distribution of Organic Light-emitting Diodes from Accelerated Degradation Tests [J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2010, 59(1):74-90.
[33]TSAI C C, TSENG S T, BALAKRISHNAN N, et al. Optimal Design for Accelerated Destructive Degradation Tests [J]. Quality Technology & Quantitative Management, 2013, 10(3):263-276.
[34]WANG Y, CHEN X, TAN Y. Optimal Design of Step-stress Accelerated Degradation Test with Multiple Stresses and Multiple Degradation Measures [J]. Quality and Reliability Engineering International, 2017, 33(8):1655-1668.
[35]LIAO H, ELSAYED E A. Reliability Inference for Field Conditions from Accelerated Degradation Testing[J]. Naval Research Logistics, 2006, 53(6):576-587.
[36]LIAO C M, TSENG S T. Optimal Design for Step-stress Accelerated Degradation Tests[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2006, 55(1):59-66.
[37]HAO S, YANG J, BERENGUER C. Nonlinear Step-stress Accelerated Degradation Modelling Considering Three Sources of Variability[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2018,172:207-215.
[38]SHEMEHSAVAR S, AMINI M. Failure Inference and Optimization for Step Stress Model Based on Bivariate Wiener Model[J]. Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation, 2016, 45(1):130-151.
[39]PENG C Y, TSENG S T. Progressive-stress Accelerated Degradation Test for Highly-Reliable Products[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2010, 59(1):30-37.
[40]HAO H B, SU C. A Bayesian Framework for Reliability Assessment via Wiener Process and MCMC [J]. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2014, 1(2):1-8.
[41]TSAI T R, SUNG W Y, LIO Y L, et al. Optimal Two-variable Accelerated Degradation Test Plan for Gamma Degradation Processes[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2016, 65(1):459-468.
[42]SRIVASTAVA P W, MANISHA, AGARWAL M L. Design of Bivariate Step-stress Partially Accelerated Degradation Test Plan Using Copula and Gamma Process[J]. International Journal of Reliability & Applications, 2016, 17(1):21-49.
[43]WANG X, XU D. An Inverse Gaussian Process Model for Degradation Data[J]. Technometrics, 2010, 52(2):188-197.
[44]YE Z S. On the Conditional Increments of Degradation Processes[J]. Statistics & Probability Letters, 2013, 83(11):2531-2536.
[45]YE Z S, Chen N. The Inverse Gaussian Process as a Degradation Model [J]. Technometrics, 2014, 56(3):302-311.
[46]YE Z S, CHEN L P, TANG L C, et al. Accelerated Degradation Test Planning Using the Inverse Gaussian Process[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2014, 63(3):750-763.
[47]李烁, 陈震, 潘尔顺. 广义逆高斯过程的步进应力加速退化试验设计[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2017, 51(2) :186-192.
LI Shuo, CHEN Zhen, PAN Ershun. Step-stress Accelerated Degradation Test Plan for Generalized Inverse Gaussian Process [J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University, 2017, 51(2):186-192.
[48]PENG C Y, TSENG S T. Mis-specification Analysis of Linear Degradation Models[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2009, 58(3):444-455.
[49]TSAI C C. Mis-specification Analyses of Gamma and Wiener Degradation Processes[J]. Journal of Statistical Planning & Inference, 2011, 141(12):3725-3735.
[50]BAUSSARON J, MIHAELA B, LO G R, et al. Reliability Assessment Based on Degradation Measurements:How to Compare Some Models[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2014, 131(3):236-241.
[51]LIU L, LI X Y, ZIO E, et al. Model Uncertainty in Accelerated Degradation Testing Analysis[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2017, 66(3):603-615.
[52]YE Z S, WANG Y, TSUI K L, et al. Degradation Data Analysis Using Wiener Processes with Measurement Errors[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2013, 62(4):772-780.
[53]SUN F, LIU L, LI X, et al. Stochastic Modeling and Analysis of Multiple Nonlinear Accelerated Degradation Processes through Information Fusion[J]. Sensors, 2016, 16(8):1-8.
[54]MARSEGUERRA M, ZIO E, CIPOLLONE M. Designing Optimal Degradation Tests via Multi-objective Genetic Algorithms[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2003, 79(1):87-94.
[55]LI Q, KECECIOGLU D B. Design of an Optimal Plan for an Accelerated Degradation Test:a Case Study[J]. International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, 2006, 23(4):426-440.
[56]PARK C, PADGETT W J. Accelerated Degradation Models for Failure Based on Geometric Brownian Motion and Gamma Processes[J]. Lifetime Data Analysis, 2005, 11(4):511-527.
[57]SI X S, WANG W, HU C H, et al. Remaining Useful Life Estimation Based on a Nonlinear Diffusion Degradation Process[J]. IEEE Trans. Reliab., 2012, 61 (1):50-67.
[58]GE Z , LI X , JIANG T , et al. Optimal Design for Step-stress Accelerated Degradation Testing Based on D-optimality[C]∥Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. Lake Buena Vista:IEEE, 2011.
[59]韩少华, 葛蒸蒸, 姜同敏,等. 基于D优化方法的CSADT设计[J]. 装备环境工程, 2012(4):82-87.
HAN Shaohua, GE Zhengzheng, JIANG Tongmin, et al. Planning of CSADT Based on D Optimization[J]. Equipment Environmental Engineering, 2012, 9(4):82-87.
[60]GUAN Q , TANG Y . Optimal Design of Accelerated Degradation Test Based on Gamma Process Models[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Probability & Statistics, 2013, 29(2):213-224.
[61]WANG H, ZHAO Y, MA X, et al. Optimal Design of Constant-stress Accelerated Degradation Tests Using the M -optimality Criterion[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2017, 164:45-54.
[62]WANG H, ZHAO Y, MA X, et al. Equivalence Analysis of Accelerated Degradation Mechanism Based on Stochastic Degradation Models[J]. Quality & Reliability Engineering International, 2017, 33(8):2281-2294.

[63]WANG H, ZHAO Y, MA X. Mechanism Equivalence in Designing Optimum Step-stress Accelerated Degradation Test Plan under Wiener Process[J]. IEEE Access, 2018, 6:4440-4451.
[64]KIM S J, BAE S J. Cost-effective Degradation Test Plan for a Nonlinear Random-coefficients Model[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2013, 110:68-79.
[65]WU S J, CHANG C T. Optimal Design of Degradation Tests in Presence of Cost Constraint[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2002, 76(2):109-115.
[66]AMINI M, SHEMEHSAVAR S, PAN Z. Optimal Design for Step-Stress Accelerated Test with Random Discrete Stress Elevating Times Based on Gamma Degradation Process[J]. Quality & Reliability Engineering International, 2016, 32(7):2391-2402.
[67] DIHARCE E R V, NARCISO S R. Stopping Times Determination for Linear Degradation Processes[J]. Estadística, 2011, 63(181):77-94.
[68]刘凯，吕从民，党炜，等. 可靠性高加速试验技术及其在我国空间站应用领域实施的总体思路[J]. 载人航天，2017，23(2):222-227.
LIU Kai, LYU Congmin, DANG Wei, et al. Highly Accelerated Reliability Testing and Thoughts of Its Implementation on China Manned Space Station[J]. Manned Spaceflight, 2017, 23(2):222-227.
[69]KAVEH M, YELLAMATI D, GOKTAS Y. Reliability Testing，Analysis and Prediction of Balancing Resistors[C] ∥Proceedings of Annual on Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS)，2012. New York:IEEE, 2012:1-7.