基于拆解难度和模糊聚类的泛化报废汽车拆解成本预测

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对报废汽车拆解前的成本评估问题，建立了一种基于拆解难度和模糊聚类的一般性综合成本评价模型。提出了影响报废汽车拆解难度的因素，通过模糊聚类分析确定不同车型在拆解过程中具有相同拆解难度的零组件；给出了聚类模型的拆解成本误差评价方法。以4台3类报废实验车型（轿车、运动型多用途汽车（SUV）、多用途汽车（MPV））的物理拆解实验数据为例，量化评价了基于模糊聚类的泛化拆解成本模型,结果表明，该模型具备各类车型的共性聚类特征，拆解成本最大误差低于28%。建立的拆解成本预测模型为报废汽车拆解企业关于拆解内容的决策问题提供了方法依据。

关键词: 模糊聚类, 拆解难度, 报废汽车, 成本预测

Abstract: Aiming at the problems of cost evaluation before dismantling ELVs, a general comprehensive cost evaluation model was established based on disassembly difficulties and fuzzy clustering. The factors affecting disassembly difficulties of ELVs were put forward. The fuzzy clustering analyses were used to determine the components that had the same disassembly difficulty among the disassembly of different models. An error evaluation method of the disassembly costs was given about the cluster model. Taking the experimental data of physical dismantling of four scrapped experimental vehicles(two cars, one sport utility vehicle, and one multi-purpose vehicle) as examples, a general disassembly cost model was quantified and evaluated based on fuzzy clustering. The results show that the model has the commonality of various models and the maximum error of disassembly cost is less than 28%. The disassembly cost forecasting model helps the technological decision before ELV dismantling in methodology.

Key words: fuzzy clustering, disassembly difficulty, end-of-life vehicle(ELV), cost prediction

中图分类号:

张春亮;陈铭. 基于拆解难度和模糊聚类的泛化报废汽车拆解成本预测[J]. 中国机械工程.

ZHANG Chunliang;CHEN Ming. Prediction of Disassembly Costs of ELVs by Fuzzy Clustering Based on Disassembly Difficulties[J]. China Mechanical Engineering.

参考文献

[1]XIA X, LI J, TIAN H, et al. The Construction and Cost-benefit Analysis of End-of-life Vehicle Disassembly Plant: a Typical Case in China[J]. Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, 2016, 18(8): 2663-2675.
[2]TIAN J, CHEN M. Sustainable Design for Automotive Products: Dismantling and Recycling of End-of-life Vehicles[J]. Waste Management, 2014, 34(2): 458-467.
[3]REMERY M, MASCLE C, AGARD B. A New Method for Evaluating the Best Product End-of-life Strategy during the Early Design Phase[J]. Journal of Engineering Design, 2012, 23(6): 419-441.
[4]厉正平, 潘双夏, 冯培恩. 产品成本估算策略及降低成本的设计方法研究[J]. 中国机械工程, 1995，6(6): 31-34.
LI Zhengping, PAN Shuangxia, FENG Peien. Studies on Strategies for Estimating Product Cost and Design Methods for Reducing Cost[J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 1995,6(6): 31-34.
[5]ZHANG C, CHEN M. Prioritising Alternatives for Sustainable End-of-life Vehicle Disassembly in China Using AHP Methodology[J]. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 2017, 30(5):556-568.
[6]WANG L, CHEN M. Policies and Perspective on End-of-life Vehicles in China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2013, 44: 168-176.
[7]温海骏, 刘明周, 刘长义, 等. 不确定环境下回收发动机拆卸调度方法[J]. 计算机集成制造系统, 2015, 21(5): 1279-1286.
WEN Haijun, LIU Mingzhou, LIU Changyi, et al. Research on Scheduling Method for Recycled Engine Disassembly under Uncertainty[J]. Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems, 2015, 21(5): 1279-1286.
[8]ZHOU Ziqiang, DAI Guohong, WU Zhaoren, et al. Fuzzy-clustering Based Cost Modeling of Disassembly Planning for EOL Products[J]. The Open Mechanical Engineering Journal, 2015, 9(1): 546-551.
[9]金晓红. 基于概率论的汽车产品可拆解性评价方法研究[D]. 长春：吉林大学, 2009.
JIN Xiaohong. Study on Evaluation Method of Disassemblability for Automobile Product Based on Probability [D]. Changchun:Jilin University, 2009.
[10]DOLADO J J. On the Problem of the Software Cost Function[J]. Information and Software Technology, 2001, 43(1): 61-72.
[11]ILGIN M, GUPTA S M, NAKASHIMA K. Coping with Disassembly Yield Uncertainty in Remanufacturing Using Sensor Embedded Products[J]. Journal of Remanufacturing, 2011, 1(1): 7.
[12]TIAN J, CHEN M. Assessing the Economics of Processing End-of-life Vehicles through Manual Dismantling[J]. Waste Management, 2016, 56:384-395.
[13]裕莉莉, 柴之龙, 李琨, 等. 汽车螺纹紧固件的装配分级及应用[J]. 汽车工艺与材料, 2016(2): 35-37.
YU Lili, CHAI Zhilong, LI Kun, et al. The Assembly Classification and Applications of the Threaded Fasteners on Automobile[J]. Automobile Technology & Material, 2016(2): 35-37.
[14]KROLL E, BEARDSLEY B, PARULIAN A. A Methodology to Evaluate Ease of Disassembly for Product Recycling[J]. IIE Transactions, 1996, 28(10): 837-846.
[15]JOO H H, LEE H C, CHO K I. Disassemblability Evaluation for the Products Using and Ease-of-disassembly Design Method[J]. Journal of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering, 1999, 16(8): 88-99.
[16]IEEE. Systematic Estimation of Disassembly Difficulties: Application to Computer Monitors[M]. New York: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 1995.
[17]谢季坚刘承平. 模糊数学方法及其应用[M]. 武汉：华中科技大学出版社, 2013.
XIE Jijian, LIU Chengping. Fuzzy Mathematics Method and Its Application[M]. Wuhan：Huazhong University of Science & Technology Press, 2013.
[18]张雷, 彭宏伟, 卞本阳, 等. 复杂产品并行拆解建模及规划方法研究[J]. 中国机械工程, 2014, 25(7): 937-943.
ZHANG Lei, PENG Hongwei, BIAN Benyang, et al. Parallel Disassembly Modeling and Planning Method of Complex Products[J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2014, 25(7): 937-943.
[19]王靖，张金锁. 综合评价中确定权重向量的几种方法比较[J]. 河北工业大学学报, 2001, 30(2):52-57.
WANG Jing, ZHANG Jinsuo. Comparing Several Methods of Assuring Weight Vector in Synthetical Evaluation[J]. Journal of Hebei University of technology, 2001, 30(2):52-57.