中国机械工程 ›› 2015, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (8): 1092-1097.

• 科学基金 • 上一篇    下一篇

区间三角模糊多态贝叶斯网络可靠性分析方法研究

张瑞军1,2;张路路1;王晓伟1,2;王囡囡1   

  1. 1.山东建筑大学,济南,250101
    2.山东省高校机械工程创新技术重点实验室,济南,250101
  • 出版日期:2015-04-25 发布日期:2015-09-10
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助项目(51175312);山东建筑大学博士基金资助项目(XNBS1244)
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 51175312)

Research on Reliability of  Multi-state System  Based  on Interval Triangular Fuzzy Bayesian Networks

Zhang Ruijun1,2;Zhang  Lulu1;Wang Xiaowei1,2;Wang Nannan1   

  1. 1.Shandong Jianzhu University,Jinan,250101
    2.Key Laboratory of  Mechanical  Engineering & Innovation Technology,Jinan,250101
  • Online:2015-04-25 Published:2015-09-10
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 51175312)

摘要:

针对传统系统可靠性分析方法在处理模糊信息方面的不足,建立了基于区间三角模糊贝叶斯网络的多态系统可靠性分析方法。通过区间三角模糊子集来描述根节点故障率;基于区间三角模糊子集,构建了区间三角模糊多态贝叶斯网络模型;研究了区间三角模糊多态贝叶斯网络可靠性分析算法,给出了求解叶节点故障模糊可能性与去模糊根节点后验概率的计算方法。最后,对塔机倾覆事故进行了可靠性分析,验证了该方法的有效性。

关键词: 区间三角模糊, 贝叶斯网络, 多态系统, 塔机倾覆事故

Abstract:

In  order  to  overcome the shortages of dealing with fuzzy information in traditional system  reliability analysis methods,this paper proposed a new method of reliability analysis method based on interval triangular fuzzy multi-state Bayesian network.An  interval triangular fuzzy subset  was built  to describe fault rate of root nodes.A model of the interval triangular fuzzy multi-states Bayesian networks was built based   on the interval triangular fuzzy subset.The calculation methods of leaf node fault  probability were proposed,and the deblured posterior probability  was researched by   the reliability analysis algorithms of  interval triangular fuzzy multi-state  Bayesian network.At last,the method was applied in the reliability  analysis  of  tower  crane  overturning accident,which shows  that the proposed method is feasibility.

Key words: interval triangular fuzzy, Bayesian network, multi-state system, tower crane overturning accident

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