可靠性, 共因失效, 风险预测, 失效相关, Copula

Copulas were introduced for CCF analysis in redundant systems and Copula-based modeling methods for system risk probability was discussed. The safety margins of components were chosen as the analytic variables and the typical mechanism of CCF was brought to light. Considering the fact that only low multiplicity failures data being known, a practical method for high multiplicity CCF probability prediction based on mixed Archimedean Copulas was put forward. An example was given to verify the new model and method, in which a redundant system consisting of identical valves was studied successfully. Copula-based modeling methods can give a new path for reliability analysis of complex systems with failure dependence.

reliability, common cause failure(CCF), risk prediction, failure dependence, Copula