存在共因失效的复杂可修系统可靠性评估

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

鉴于传统方法在处理存在由部件选择性失效传播引起的共因失效的复杂可修系统可靠性与可用性评估问题时的缺陷，提出一种基于元胞自动机思想的蒙特卡洛模拟方法用以评估存在共因失效的复杂可修系统的可靠性。该方法首先将系统转化成二终端网络，然后基于问题的基本假设去模拟不同时刻下网络各边对应的状态值，利用元胞自动机并行搜索的优势判断每次模拟过程中不同时刻下网络的连通性,从而推导出计算系统可靠性、瞬时可用性、区间可用性、系统平均维修时间以及系统单位时间平均维修次数的具体算法。最后,通过算例对算法进行了说明。

关键词: 复杂可修系统, 选择性失效传播, 元胞自动机, 蒙特卡洛模拟

Abstract:

Because of the drawbacks of traditional algorithms when dealing with the problems of evaluating the reliability and availability of complex repairable system containing components with propagated failures having selective effect, a Monte Carlo simulation algorithm was presented based on the idea of cellular automata. The proposed algorithm converted the system into a two-terminal network, then, simulated the states of each arc of the network at different times based on basic assumptions of problems. The algorithm ascertained the connectivity of the network at different times in every iteration using cellular automata which had the advantages of parallel searching. The specific algorithms of computing reliability, instantaneous availability, interval availability, mean downtime and mean maintenance frequency per unit time of the system were proposed. Finally, an example was given to illustrate how the algorithms were applied.

Key words: complex repairable system, propagated failure having selective effect, cellular automata, Monte Carlo simulation

中图分类号:

阮渊鹏, 何桢, 张旭涛, 张驰. 存在共因失效的复杂可修系统可靠性评估[J]. 中国机械工程, 2014, 25(10): 1317-1324.

Ruan Yuanpeng, He Zhen, Zhang Xutao, Zhang Chi. Reliability Evaluation of Complex Repairable System with Common Cause Failures[J]. China Mechanical Engineering, 2014, 25(10): 1317-1324.

参考文献

[1]Levitin G,Xing L D.Reliability and Performance of Multi-state Systems with Propagated Failures Having Selective Effect[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2010,95(6):655-661.
[2]Levitin G,Xing L D,Ben-Haim H,et al.Multi-state Systems with Selective Propagated Failures and Imperfect Individual and Group Protections[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2011,96(12):1657-1666.
[3]Goble W M,Brombacher A C,Bukowski J V.Using Stress-strain Simulations to Characterize Common Cause[M].New York: Springer,1998.
[4]Roy D,Dasgupta T.A Discretizing Approach for Evaluating Reliability of Complex Systems under Stress-strength Model[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability,2001,50(2):145-150.
[5]Myers A.K-out-of-N:G System Reliability with Imperfect Fault Coverage[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 2007, 56(3): 464-473.
[6]Xing L D.Reliability Evaluation of Phased-Mission Systems with Imperfect Fault Coverage and Common-cause Failures[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability,2007,56(1):58-68.
[7]Xing L D,Dugan J B,Morrissette B A.Efficient Reliability Analysis of Systems with Functional Dependence Loops[J]. Maintenance and Reliability,2009,43(3):65-69.
[8]王正,谢里阳,李兵,等.共因失效系统动态可靠性模型[J].中国机械工程,2008,19(1):5-9.
Wang Zheng,Xie Liyang,Li Bing,et al.Time-dependent Reliability Model of System with Common Cause Failure[J].China Mechanical Engineering,2008,19(1):5-9.
[9]李春洋,陈循,易晓山.考虑共因失效的多态系统可靠性优化[J].中国机械工程, 2010, 21(2):155-159.
Li Chunyang,Chen Xun,Yi Xiaoshan.Reliability Optimization of Multi-state System in Presence of Common Cause Failures[J]. China Mechanical Engineering,2010,21(2):155-159.
[10]Wang C N,Xing L D,Levitin G.Propagated Failure Analysis for Non-repairable Systems Considering Both Global and Selective Effects[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2012,99:96-104.
[11]尹晓伟,钱文学,谢里阳.基于贝叶斯网络的系统可靠性共因失效模型[J].中国机械工程,2009,20(1):90-94.
Yin Xiaowei,Qian Wenxue,Xie Liyang.Common Cause Failure Model of System Reliability Based on Bayesian Networks[J]. China Mechanical Engineering,2009,20(1):90-94.
[12]Aggarwal K,Gupta J,Misra K.A Simple Method for Reliability Evaluation of a Communication System[J].IEEE Transactions on Communications,1975,23(5):563-566.
[13]Yeh W C.A Revised Layered-network Algorithm to Search for All d-minpaths of a Limited-flow Acyclic Netwok[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,1998,47(4):436-442.
[14]Aven T.Availability Evaluation of Oil/Gas Production and Transportation Systems[J].Reliability Engineering, 1987, 18(2): 35-44.
[15]Billinton R,Allan R N.Reliability Evaluation of Engineering Systems,Concepts and Techniques[M].New York:Plenum Press,1992.
[16]Fishman G S.A Comparison of Four Monte Carlo Methods for Estimating the Probability of s-t Connectedness[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,1986,35(2):145-155.
[17]Yeh W C,Lin Y C,Chung Y Y.Performance Analysis of Cellular Automata Monte Carlo Simulation for Estimating Network Reliability[J]. Expert Systems with Applications,2010,37(5):3537-3544.
[18]Zio E,Podofillini L,Zille V.A Combination of Monte Carlo Simulation and Cellular Automa for Computing the Availability of Complex Network Systems[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2006,91(2):181-190.
[19]Demir S. Reliability of Combined k-out-of-n and Consecutive k(c)-out-of-n Systems of Markov Dependent Components[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability,2009,58(4):691-693.
[20]Guo H T，Yang X H.Automatic Creation of Markov Models for Reliability Assessment of Safety Instrumented Systems[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2008,93(6):829-837.
[21]Xiao G,Li Z Z.Estimation of Dependability Measures and Parameter Sensitivities of a Consecutive-k-out-of-n:F Repairable System with (k-1)-step Markov Dependence by Simulation[J]. IEEE Transactions on Reliability,2008,57(1):71-83.
[22]Marquez A C,Heguedas A S,Lung B.Monte Carlo-based Assessment of System Availability[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2005,88(3):273-289.
[23]Durgo Rao K,Gopika V,Sanyasi Rao V V S,et al.Dynamic Fault Tree Analysis Using Monte Carlo Simulation in Probabilistic Safety Assessment[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2009,94(4):872-883.