Abstract:

Based on CBM strategy, the life on wing prediction of aeroengine was made herein, aiming at providing airlines with a scientific and reasonable basis for the engine's plans of removal. Firstly, according to the aeroengine's historical data of removal, a mathematical model of the maintenance decision-making control limit was established. And the establishment of this model was based on the proportional hazards-proportional odds model. Then using time series prediction method based on least squares support vector machine, and combined with the condition trend prediction of engine, life on wing of engine was predicted. Finally, in the case study of a concrete instance, the method was proved to be effective and to have a high practical value.

Key words: aeroengine, condition based maintenance(CBM)；performance degradation, maintenance decision-making control limit；proportional hazards-proportional odds model；life on wing

摘要：

为了给航空公司制定航空发动机拆换计划提供科学合理的依据，基于视情维修方式，对航空发动机的在翼寿命进行了研究。首先，根据发动机历史拆换记录，基于比例危险-比例优势模型建立了发动机维修决策控制限的数学模型。然后，利用基于最小二乘支持向量机的时间序列预测方法对发动机状态参数进行了趋势预测，进而结合维修决策控制限模型便可得到发动机在翼寿命的预测结果。最后通过实例验证了该方法的有效性和实用价值。

关键词: 航空发动机, 视情维修, 性能衰退, 维修决策控制限, 比例危险-比例优势模型, 在翼寿命