基于知识流动视角的工程技术预测——以谐波减速器为例

中国机械工程

基于知识流动视角的工程技术预测——以谐波减速器为例

刘怀兰1;廖岭1;周源2

1.华中科技大学，武汉，430074
2.清华大学，北京，100084

出版日期:2016-12-25 发布日期:2016-12-28
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目（71203117，L152400015）；中国工程科技知识中心建设项目(CKCEST-2015-4-2)

Knowledge Flow Based Engineering Technology Forecasting：a Case of Harmonic Reducer

Liu Huailan1;Liao Ling1;Zhou Yuan2

1.Huazhong University of Science & Technology,Wuhan,430074
2.Tsinghua University,Beijing,100084

Online:2016-12-25 Published:2016-12-28
Supported by:

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以知识流动为视角，立足于文献和专利数据，并结合聚类分析和主路径分析法，构建了定量的技术预测模型。以谐波减速器为例，基于1980~2009年的文献和专利数据，运用该模型进行技术预测，然后与2010~2014年的技术进行对比。结果证明，该技术预测模型具有较高的可行性和有效性。最后，预测出谐波减速器未来五年的技术：未来各国将致力于对影响传动装置高精度、零回差、高传动效率、高承载能力、高可靠性等性能相关的技术研究及对传动装置小型化、轻质化、组成部件的优化研究。

关键词: 机械制造自动化, 技术预测, 知识流动, 谐波减速器

Abstract: In the perspective of knowledge flow, the paper constructed a quantitative engineering technology forecasting model by combining the clustering and main path method, based on the literatures and patent data. Taking harmonic reducer as an example, the literatures and patent data of 1980~2009 were applied to make a engineering technology forecasting by the model, and compared the results with the technologies during the 2010~2014. It turns out that the proposed framework is feasible and effective. At last, the engineering technology trends were forecasted for the next five years as follows: all countries of the world will devote themselves to the areas of improving the precision, backlash, transmission efficiency, bearing capacity, reliability and other performance-related technologies, miniaturization and light weight of transmission, as well as optimization of component parts.

Key words: mechanical manufacturing and automation, technology forecasting, knowledge flow, harmonic reducer

中图分类号:

TH132.46

刘怀兰, 廖岭, 周源. 基于知识流动视角的工程技术预测——以谐波减速器为例[J]. 中国机械工程.

Liu Huailan, Liao Ling, Zhou Yuan. Knowledge Flow Based Engineering Technology Forecasting：a Case of Harmonic Reducer[J]. China Mechanical Engineering.

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